Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.003490 0.003813 0.004159 0.004556 0.005001 0.005486 0.006056
2025-11-30 0.002970 0.003429 0.003954 0.004604 0.005391 0.006321 0.007514
2025-12-07 0.002716 0.003255 0.003902 0.004743 0.005821 0.007175 0.009031
2025-12-14 0.002448 0.003017 0.003724 0.004680 0.005961 0.007649 0.010091
2025-12-21 0.002223 0.002803 0.003545 0.004582 0.006023 0.008000 0.011003
2025-12-28 0.002058 0.002647 0.003420 0.004534 0.006134 0.008415 0.012035
2026-01-04 0.001945 0.002550 0.003362 0.004565 0.006349 0.008989 0.013366
2026-01-11 0.001819 0.002422 0.003250 0.004505 0.006419 0.009343 0.014388
2026-01-18 0.001715 0.002317 0.003160 0.004465 0.006510 0.009732 0.015507
2026-01-25 0.001618 0.002215 0.003065 0.004408 0.006565 0.010063 0.016560
2026-02-01 0.001550 0.002149 0.003018 0.004419 0.006725 0.010577 0.018005
2026-02-08 0.001470 0.002062 0.002932 0.004361 0.006764 0.010883 0.019100
2026-02-15 0.001383 0.001961 0.002825 0.004268 0.006749 0.011117 0.020137
2026-02-22 0.001334 0.001917 0.002802 0.004312 0.006976 0.011819 0.022246
2026-03-01 0.001308 0.001906 0.002829 0.004441 0.007363 0.012863 0.025267
2026-03-08 0.001245 0.001832 0.002752 0.004383 0.007403 0.013239 0.026879
2026-03-15 0.001181 0.001752 0.002660 0.004292 0.007372 0.013465 0.028184
2026-03-22 0.001130 0.001693 0.002597 0.004248 0.007424 0.013870 0.029991
2026-03-29 0.001097 0.001659 0.002575 0.004276 0.007621 0.014600 0.032762
2026-04-05 0.001051 0.001603 0.002511 0.004221 0.007643 0.014953 0.034619
2026-04-12 0.001011 0.001555 0.002459 0.004184 0.007700 0.015389 0.036795
2026-04-19 0.000972 0.001505 0.002401 0.004132 0.007719 0.015739 0.038802
2026-04-26 0.000945 0.001475 0.002376 0.004142 0.007871 0.016420 0.041947